Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Could Be in for a 'Caning

Hurricane forecasters are saying that 2010 is looking like an extremely active year. Also, one forecaster (Weather Services International) is describing the risk to the East Coast (Outer Banks up through Maine) as equal to Florida and the Gulf States. Nothing adds to your summer fun like low-probability disasters that no one's prepared for.

In 1938, before hurricanes were named, there was a category 3 storm that plowed up Long Island, hence its nickname, the "Long Island Express." You can read about that on this website, by a science professor at Suffolk County Community College. He also notes that the "return time" for category 3 storms in the NYC/Long Island area is about 80 years. (And that number must be decreasing with the ocean warming.)

I'm tempted to think -- considering the long term of climate change, and the current go-nowhere politics around it -- that major storm threats in the northeast media market might have a chance of inspiring some actual efforts to curb climate change. But I'm not willing to bet on that. If the thinkable-but-unlikely does happen, I'll look forward to the claims that God is punishing the East Coast for being full of liberals.


Blogger Don said...

We missed a week of school in Hamden in 5th or 6th grade when Hurricane Gloria came through due to the power being out. It was September, and the weather afterwards was great, so we just rode bikes around the neighborhood and generally goofed off outside for a whole week - a fantastic time to be a kid.

4 years later, we had a freak tornado touch down and destroy much of the area around our middle school, including the school itself. We were already in high school at that point, so it wasn't as exciting. Plus, while seeing homes that look like large scale dollhouses (walls ripped off, clothes still hanging in the closets, etc) is cool, it was a bit sobering.

I guess my point is... BEWARE!!!!

5/26/2010 10:29 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...


Unfortunately, it is only a matter of time before Long Island/NY City Metro gets hit with a Katrina-like storm. Global warming is increasing the chances that there will be more intense hurricanes which also does not bode well for us in the NE.

Thanks for the link to my '38 Hurricane site.

Scott A. Mandia, Professor of Physical Sciences
Selden, NY
Global Warming: Man or Myth?
My Global Warming Blog
Twitter: AGW_Prof
"Global Warming Fact of the Day" Facebook Group

5/27/2010 9:13 PM  

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